Scientific achievements and developments

2022

The fundamental and applied research most significant results of General Energy Institute of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine obtained in 2022

General Energy Institute of NAS of Ukraine has developed the theoretical foundations of object-oriented identification of phenomena, processes, and objects, based on research of the information resource - the characteristics of noise fields that make up energy objects. For the first time in the world, the latest constructive models of noise signals of energy facilities, take into account retrospective and current information about the state of the facility and reflect its life cycle. The use of constructive models of noise signals opens up the possibility of analyzing the current state of the facility's energy supply, including monitoring emissions into the atmosphere and using this information to forecast its further functioning.It corresponds to the best world analogues and is used in the energy industry and in the control processes of man-made hazardous objects (Member-correspondent of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine V.P. Babak, L.M. Shcherbak, S.I. Kovtun).

1. For the first time in the world, the expediency of using wind and solar power plants in conjunction with standby traditional power plants to cover the electrical load schedules of the power system has been theoretically justified and experimentally proven, which will increase their energy-economic indicators and the profitability of the Ukrainian energy market. With the use of digital modeling, it was established that without applying the proposed approach, the lost profits of the energy market of Ukraine amounted to about 3 billion US dollars in 2021. The expected additional profits of the energy market of Ukraine at the level of 2030, according to the estimates made, will amount to about 6 billion US dollars (Academicians of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine M.M. Kulyk, O.V. Zgurovets).

2. For the first time, a new method of diagnosing elements of complex energy objects has been developed, using deep learning algorithms of artificial neural networks, which opens the way to creating an effective, data-driven system for diagnosing energy equipment with the ability to process events that occurred thousands of discrete time steps ago, and remember to remember them, which in turn allows to increase the accuracy of forecasting reliability and estimating the residual resource of the equipment. The practical value of the obtained results arises in the developed algorithm of the functioning of the computerized system for controlling the fuel combustion process with stepwise correction of the formation of the air-fuel mixture based on feedback signals from the oxygen sensor, which allows maintaining the coefficients of excess air in the output gases in the required parameters and achievements. formation of harmful emissions.The structure of the management and control system of the fuel combustion process is proposed, based on the production of a wide-band oxygen sensor and a frequency-regulated electric drive of the blower fan, which made it possible to ensure effective fuel combustion in boiler units by maintaining a stoichiometric air-fuel mixture with a reduction in the formation of harmful emissions, and to recommend its implementation in practice modernization of boiler units
(corresponding member of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine V.P. Babak, S.I. Kovtun, A.O. Zaporozhets)

3. For the first time in Ukraine, a model of mathematical programming of the load of electric and thermal energy generating capacities is proposed, which simultaneously ensures the fulfillment of two production-consumption balances - electric and thermal energy in accordance with the consumption schedules of each day of the year and optimizes the use of electric heat generators that consume electric energy taking into account the schedule electric load and release thermal energy according to the needs of subscribers connected to the centralized heat supply system. This makes it possible to align electrical load schedules and avoid temporary shutdowns of thermal power plants at night, which significantly improves their operating conditions. The results were implemented in NEC "Ukrenergo" according to the economic agreement No. 1916 dated 28.09.2022 (S.V. Shulzhenko, O.I. Teslenko, T.P. Nechayeva, V.O. Darius).

4. For the first time in Ukraine, a software and information tool for forecasting the energy balance, which is resistant to growing restrictions on the completeness of information support, was created, which, thanks to the possibility of statistical and technological approaches to determining the coefficients of the Leontiev output-consumption matrix, allows determining the optimal volumes of energy supply of energy subsystems and objects . elements, separate production processes with different sources of supply, control the use of fuel and energy resources. The developed software and information tool is used to solve the problem of forming the "Annual Forecast Fuel and Energy Balance", which is developed by the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine (M.I. Kaplin, V.M. Makarov, T.R. Bilan).

5. For the first time in Ukraine, a new methodological approach has been developed for determining the forecast volumes of implementation at the regional level of heat pump stations in centralized heat supply systems, using which the composition and potential of a low source of heat supply is determined. Recommendations for the State Agency for Energy Efficiency and Energy Saving of Ukraine regarding directions and forecast volumes of use of heat pump installations in regional heat supply systems of Ukraine were submitted. The proposed methodical approach will make it possible for each region to locate the economically accessible energy potential of introducing heat pump stations during the period of military recovery of Ukraine (V.O. Derii, O.I. Teslenko).

6. A model of monitoring and identification of energy facilities is proposed, in which energy consumers are represented as a stochastic space-time environment of energy consumption, and the intensity of information parameters of air pollution in space and time - as an n-dimensional random field. The general hierarchical algorithm for monitoring air pollution by energy facilities with the definition of hierarchical levels of information forming information and analytical centers, and access to this information by different types of users, provides feedback with decision centers that affect the operation of control facilities. and regulation of certain air pollutants.This corresponds to the best world analogues and will be used in the process of monitoring facilities in the energy sector (corresponding member of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine V.P. Babak, A.O. Zaporozhets)

7. For the first time in the world, based on the theory of fuzzy sets, a multi-level model of circulation-coherent service-dominant transformation of the structure of the hybrid energy system was developed, a system of corresponding levels was formed, and an organizational mechanism for the interaction of energy service market participants with the energy and fuel markets was proposed. The use of a multi-level model makes it possible to determine the structure and volumes of optimal energy resources in the process of transforming the energy system and directions for attracting cross-border aid. This corresponds to the world level and will be used in the transformation of the fuel and energy complex in the conditions of the country's recovery (Member-Corporator of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine O.V. Novoseltsev).

2021

1. The price model and the model of price indices, which, unlike Leontiev’s price model and other well-known price models, were developed and comprehensively researched in the theory of inter-industry balance were built on fundamentally different foundations, namely, they were formed not on the balance of expenses, but on the balance of releases in sets of Input-Output (IO) mathematical tools. As a result, devoided the proposed new IO price models of methodological errors, which (errors) with realistic initial data for known IO price models reach tens of percent or even more (Academician of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine M.M. Kulyk).

2. Mathematical models for the study of frequency and power regulation processes in combined energy systems (UTS), which include powerful wind (WPS) and solar (SPS) power plants, were designed and developed by introducing dependencies that describe the operation of high-speed generator-regulators of various types, including rechargeable batteries (AB). In the mathematical model, in contrast to the existing ones, new laws of frequency regulation in energy systems with wind turbines and SPPs have been developed and used. It has been established that the combination of two components in the law, namely, adaptive and proportional-differential-integral, provides qualitatively better results in ensuring frequency accuracy and stability of the control system. The optimal ratio between these components was found, which provides the maximum regulatory effect. In addition, an additional (interval) law of adaptive regulation was developed, which, in combination with other components, makes it possible to reduce the required power of regulating ABs by 20%. It has been experimentally proven that the involvement of AB and HPP to stabilize the operating modes of UTS with significant amounts of WPP and SPS capacities provides a stable frequency in the base zone of the electrical load schedule (GEN) that meets not only the standard for UTS of Ukraine (50 ± 0.2 Hz), but even exceeds the requirements of the UTS of the European Union ENTSO-E (50 ± 0.02 Hz). Moreover, according to the conducted studies, the complexes of WPP, SPP and AB, together with HPP, provide the possibility of stable frequency and capacity operation of OES not only in the basic, but even in the semi-peak and peak zones of the GEN. This significantly increases the competitiveness of the mentioned complexes

(Academicians of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine M.M. Kulyk, O.V. Zgurovets).

3. An important study was carried out regarding the impact of the law on the green tariff on the functioning of the UTS and the economy of Ukraine as a whole. It is shown that the preferences granted according to this law to the owners of WPPs and SPPs are higher than those ever granted in the European Union. The calculations show that the costs of electricity consumers for its production by wind and solar power plants with a total capacity of about 12 GW for one year will be an order of magnitude higher than the costs for a similar amount of energy that can be provided by traditional energy. At the same time, the difference in costs exceeds 3 billion dollars. USA, which is a loss for consumers. Such losses cannot be sustained by the Ukrainian electricity market, which is the only buyer of electricity from the owners of WPPs and SPPs. Even now, when the total installed capacity of wind power plants and thermal power stations is about 8 GW, the energy market of Ukraine cannot independently pay for the electricity of these power plants. NEC "Ukrenergo" issued permits for the construction of WPPs and SPPs with a total volume of about 18 GW. Therefore, their installed capacity of 12 GW will be reached in the next 1-2 years, and then the electricity market will go bankrupt, and the threat of default will become real for the Ukrainian economy. To prevent this phenomenon, it is necessary to urgently adopt changes to the law on the green tariff, and the first step should be the abolition of the archaic and binding principle "take or pay" in it

(Academician of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine M.M. Kulyk).

4. For the first time, a mathematical programming model was developed with integer variables for determining the structure and scope of development of traditional and renewable energy in compliance with international environmental agreements and safety restrictions, which in its functionality corresponds to the best world analogues, some of which are currently used by operators of ENTSO-E transmission systems. Unlike analogues, the model takes into consideration the structure of Ukraine's generating capacities in more detail, their technical-economic and physical-technical indicators, and the established operating modes of power plants characteristic of Ukraine's UTS. The versatility of the algorithms implemented in the model allows is used for a wide range of research, in particular, on the optimization of load modes of generating capacities of the power system for the short-term perspective, the formation of electricity balances of Ukraine for the next year or the medium-term perspective, as a component of research on the development of strategic documents, for example, the Energy strategies of Ukraine until 2050 and others. With the use of the model, the structure of the generating capacity of the UTS of Ukraine until 2040 was formed, which ensures the preservation of the existing power units of nuclear power plants in operation, as well as the integration of about 18 GW of installed capacity of wind turbines and SPPs in compliance with the principles of balance reliability of the energy system (S.V. Shulzhenko).

5. For the first time, a mathematical model was developed for the optimization of the supply of coal products to the country's economy, which takes into consideration coal products not only for energy needs, but also for other consumers by types of economic activity and population. In contrast to the known models, the model combines detailed consideration of the technical and economic indicators of the technological equipment of mines and beneficiation plants with algorithms for coordinating flows of all types of coal products, which made it possible to forecast the structure of finished coal products with the provision of the necessary indicators of its quality in the technological chain "mine - beneficiation plant - consumer". With the application of the software implementation of the model, the forecast structure of coal production for the electric power industry and the overall balance of coal production in the economy of Ukraine were developed according to the scenarios of the development of the coal industry for the period until 2040, according to which the maximum coal production under the optimistic scenario, 61 million tons, will be achieved in 2035 , according to the basic and pessimistic - 46 million tons and 41 million tons, respectively, will be reached in 2030 (V.M. Makarov, M.I. Kaplin, M.O. Perov).

6. An improved method of determining the total energy intensity of products for multi-product production, which, unlike the existing one, includes several types of energy intensity at different hierarchical levels: direct - at the level of a technological unit or workshop; technological - at the level of the technological chain of production of products in a workshop or a group of workshops; full factory, which includes, in addition to the technological energy intensity, the energy intensity of the main production assets, labor costs, intra-factory transportation; the total energy intensity of products, which includes the energy intensity of extraction and transportation of raw materials to the enterprise to the full factory energy intensity. The method of determining the direct energy intensity of products has been improved with the addition of algorithms for determining the energy intensity of thermal and secondary energy resources of excess pressure and the introduction of the coefficient of distribution of joint energy costs in multi-product production. A new algorithm for determining the total energy intensity of labor costs has been developed, which, unlike the previous one, takes into consideration income items of the population, and the algorithm of the total energy intensity of the main production assets has also been improved. A project of changes and additions to DSTU 3682-98 "Energy conservation. Methodology for determining the total energy intensity of products, works and services". According to the improved methodology, indicators of the total energy intensity of products of ferrous metallurgy, coke chemistry, combined production of heat and electricity at thermal power plants, and primary oil processing until 2040 have been determined. The results of the work were considered at the meeting of TC 48 "Energozberezhenie" and it was recommended to include the completed work in the National Standardization Program for 2022 and submit it to the State Enterprise "UkrNDNC" (O.E. Malyarenko, V.V. Stanytsyna, G.O. Kuts).

7. In order to study the conditions for fulfilling the obligations that Ukraine undertook by joining the Global Initiative to Reduce Methane Emissions (to reduce methane emissions by 30% by 2030 from the 2020 level), forecasts of methane emissions from fuel industries were developed for the first time in Ukraine - energy complex until 2040. It was determined that in the coal industry, achieving the specified reduction in methane emissions is possible only if the capture and utilization of methane from coal mines is increased from the current 10.3% to 21–52% for various industry development scenarios. It was determined that in the gas industry, achieving the specified reduction of methane emissions by 2030 is possible only if not only the implementation of measures to reduce them, but also the development of national methods for estimating methane emissions and the use of national coefficients in the formation of the National Cadastre of anthropogenic emissions from sources and absorption by sinks of greenhouse gases (I.Ch. Leshchenko, T.P. Nechaeva, V.E. Shcherbina).

2020

1. Research models of frequency and power regulation processes in combined power systems, which include wind and solar power plants, have been developed by using the developed new adaptive laws of frequency and power regulation in the models. It was determined that the combination of two components in the law, namely, adaptive and proportional-differential-integral, provides qualitatively better results in ensuring frequency accuracy and stability of the regulation system. The optimal ratio between these components was found, which provides the maximum regulatory effect. The obtained new regulatory laws were included in the developed software and information complex "Frequency-M", which made it possible to conduct a study on determining the conditions and volumes of use of wind and solar power plants as part of the UTS, as well as the necessary number of regulators to ensure stable operation of the power system. It was determined that in order to ensure the European frequency stability requirements in the UTS, in the case of using high-speed regulators based on storage batteries, their power should not be less than the range of the combined power of wind power plants and SPS. Insufficient power of the regulator leads to a deterioration in the quality of frequency regulation, which rapidly decreases with a decrease in the power of the regulator in comparison with a change in the power of the wind turbine (Academician of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine M.M. Kulyk, O.V. Zgurovets).

2. A new mathematical model of the joint operation of the solar photovoltaic station and the accumulation system of electricity storage has been developed to ensure the maintenance of the stability of the supply of electricity under variable weather conditions (variable cloudiness). Such a hybrid system (SPP and electricity storage system, in particular, a battery) allows the implementation of the operating mode with the transfer of a share of the "surplus" volume of electricity generated by the SPP during the hours of maximum insolation, which can potentially pose a threat to the balance reliability of the UES of Ukraine, in the evening period of peak loads of the UES . Model calculations showed that for a SPP with a capacity of 10 MW, the use of a storage unit with a capacity of 3.0 MWh allows to transfer approximately 4.5% of "excess" electricity (T.P. Nechaeva, I.M. Buratynskyi, S.V. Shulzhenko).

3. The mathematical model for estimating the weighted average cost of thermal energy over the life cycle has been improved, which, in particular, takes into consideration in detail the costs of electricity as the main energy carrier for heat production and for connection to the power grid, which is mandatory for electric boilers and heat pump units. Calculations proved that for electric boilers with a capacity of 0.54–50 MW(e), under the conditions of setting a purchase tariff for electricity at a level lower than 50% of the average in the UTS of Ukraine, competitiveness is ensured on the existing thermal energy market in the heat supply systems of Ukraine (O .I. Teslenko, V.V. Stanitsyna).

4. A new mathematical model for optimizing the production capacities of the coal industry in accordance with the needs for energy coal of thermal power plants of UTS of Ukraine has been developed. The model, unlike the existing ones, takes into consideration in detail the technical and economic indicators of the technological equipment of mines, coal beneficiation factories and the corresponding algorithms for mutual coordination of fuel flows, which made it possible to forecast the structure of the finished coal product with the provision of its quality indicators at all production sites "mine-factory-thermal power plant" , as well as reducing emissions of harmful substances into the atmosphere from burning coal at TPP (M.M. Makortetskyi, V.M. Makarov, M.O. Perov, I.Yu. Novitskyi).

5. The economic-mathematical model for optimization of the development of the mining sector of the coal industry of Ukraine has been improved, designed to determine the options for re-equipment of pits of coal-mining enterprises, which for the first time takes into consideration not only the possibilities of concentrating production on a selected subset of pits and the competitiveness of coal products, but also the volumes of mine methane release, the necessary production the capacity of the equipment for its disposal, the amount of capital costs for such equipment, as well as the quality of the mined coal. The software implementation of the model made it possible to develop scenarios for the development of the coal industry and forecasts for the reduction of mine methane emissions for the period up to 2050,to determine effective technologies and optimal equipment of cleaning complexes for re-equipment of mines, provided they achieve maximum production volumes and ensure environmental safety (V.M. Makarov, M.I. Kaplin, M.M. Makortetskyi).

The model of mathematical programming with integer variables "Dispatching of generating capacities when covering the electric load schedules of UTS of Ukraine" was further developed. For the first time, mathematical equations were developed and introduced into the model regarding compliance with the required volumes of secondary reserves in the UTS of Ukraine, in particular, in accordance with the requirements of the Transmission System Code. Application of the proposed equations makes it possible to provide secondary reserves in the necessary volumes for each hour of the daily schedule of electric loads, which is critical in case of participation in covering the schedules of electric loads of existing non-maneuverable powerful NPPs.

The proposed improvements make it possible to separately take into account the levels of necessary secondary reserves both for loading and unloading, which are set exogenously for each power unit and/or hydro unit, taking into account their physical and technical indicators, in particular, the rate of change of capacity (S.V. Shulzhenko, V. A. Denisov).

2019

The most important scientific results of the Institute in 2019

The theory of inter-branch balance received further development. The relationship between Leontiev's model and a new model developed at the Institute, which uses not the vector of final consumption (Leontiev's model), but the vector of added value, which provides higher accuracy of forecasting and also significantly expands the range of researched problems through the compatible use of these models. An unambiguous connection and vector-matrix dependence

between the vectors of final consumption and added value, which must be ensured when balancing them, has been established (Academician of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine M.M. Kulyk).

Basic research models of frequency and power regulation processes in combined energy systems have been developed by formalizing the functioning of wind, solar power plants and storage batteries in their composition. On their basis, the software and information complex "Frequency-M" was developed, which provides an opportunity to investigate the effectiveness of the application of various laws of frequency and power regulation. With its use, the calculations of regulation regimes were performed, which ensure the stabilization of frequency and power with large wind and solar power plants as part of the national energy system in accordance with the requirements of the energy system of Ukraine and the European Union, and also allow determining the amount of necessary capital investments (Academician of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine M.M. Kulyk, O.V. Zgurovets).

For the first time, a new model of mathematical programming "Dispatching of hydraulic aggregates of the PHES when covering the electric load schedules of the UTS of Ukraine" with integer variables was developed in the conditions of a significant amount of generation of WPPs and SPPs, as well as NPPs operating in the basic mode. The computer implementation of the model, in contrast to currently known software complexes, allows to flexibly simulate the modes of operation of the gas power plant, in particular, the modes of simultaneous operation in pumping and generator modes of hydro units of various gas power plants, which ensures the achievement of a balance between consumption and generation of electricity in the power system due to application of a wider range of gas station operation modes. Performed simulation calculations of the actual load schedule of the UTS of Ukraine for the day of the flood, which is the most difficult to ensure the balancing of the UTS of Ukraine, proved the possibility of using generating capacities, in particular, SES at the level of 3700 MW of installed capacity with achieving balances for every hour of the day (S.V. Shulzhenko , V.A. Denisov).

The model of the life cycle of the combined operation of power plants based on renewable energy sources, electricity storage systems based on accumulator batteries and traditional maneuverable reserve plants (gas-fuel and coal-fired thermal power plants) has been improved and applied, which ensures the determination of the weighted average cost of electricity during the joint operation of such technologies during the life of RES in the conditions ensuring a stable forecasted supply of electricity at the level of the installed RES capacity. In the conditions of growing environmental requirements, in particular, fees for carbon emissions, the joint operation of a wind power plant, a battery storage system and a gas and oil thermal power plant as a backup has significant advantages compared to the use of a coal thermal power plant. Thus, with a charge for CO2 emissions of $30/t, the weighted average cost of electricity of a system with a gas-oil TPP is 7-9% lower than its cost with a backup coal-fired TPP, and with a charge for CO2 emissions of $100/t, this difference is 18%. At the same time, CO2 emissions during the entire time of joint operation of the wind power plant, battery storage system, and backup coal-fired TPP amount to 27.4 million tons of CO2 at a 30% wind power efficiency and 23.5 million tons of CO2 at a 40% wind power efficiency, which is more than two times times higher than the corresponding emissions when used as a backup gas and oil thermal power station (Academicians of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine M.M. Kulyk, T.P. Nechaeva).

An economic-mathematical model for optimization of the development of the mining sector of the coal industry of Ukraine has been developed and applied, designed to determine the options for the conversion of coal mines, which for the first time, unlike the existing ones, takes into consideration not only the possibilities of concentrating production on a selected subset of coal mines, the competitiveness of coal products, as well as quality indicators of mined coal, which made it possible to predict reductions in beneficiation costs even at the mining stage, to ensure a targeted selection of mines for making the most effective investments in the production of finished coal products. The model makes it possible to plan measures to re-equip Ukrainian coal-mining enterprises with new technical level equipment within the framework of developing short- and medium-term programs for the development of the coal industry in order to significantly reduce the need to import coal products with quality indicators necessary for end consumers (V.M. Makarov, M.I. Kaplin, M.M. Makortetskyi).

The method of determining the average cost of thermal energy over the life cycle has been further developed, which differs in that the calculation algorithm includes additional components with energy and economic indicators of environmental protection technologies and an environmental tax. Using the improved method, the average life cycle cost of thermal energy produced in boilers of various structural types with thermal capacity from 0.25 to 52.2 MW, which are most common in centralized heat supply systems and operate on natural gas, fuel oil, coal, and in household boilers with a thermal capacity of 0.2–1.3 MW, operating on wood chips and wood pellets. The method allows boilers operating on natural gas and fuel oil to take into account the introduction of technologies to reduce emissions of nitrogen oxides, and for coal boilers - also sulfuric anhydrite and solid particles. The improved method separately takes into consideration the environmental component of the average cost of thermal energy over the life cycle, as well as the impact of the amount of the discount and environmental tax. The calculations showed that coal boilers have the largest ecological component in the average cost of thermal energy, which is 56.58 UAH/Gcal, and for boilers operating on natural gas and fuel oil, this indicator is 18.03 and 33.74 UAH/Gcal, respectively. Gcal, therefore, with the growth of the environmental tax, the competitiveness of coal-fired boiler plants will decrease (O.E. Malyarenko, V.V. Stanytsyna, G.O. Kuts).

A balance-optimization model of the energy supply of the country's economy has been developed under the conditions of restrictions on the amount of available energy carriers, the growing influence of security factors on the promising directions of energy development. The manufacture of energy carriers in the fuel industries, their importation, transformation in the fuel-energy complex and consumption in industry, transport and the utility sector are represented in the model by technological methods of L.V. Kantorovich The structure of technological methods, as well as their product and technological connections, is represented by a network diagram of energy flows. Volumes of domestic production and import of fuel products are linked by energy security ratios based on criteria regulated by the current legislation of the country. The model makes it possible to form predictive fuel and energy balances with comprehensive consideration of the following main factors: achievable volumes of extraction of primary fuel resources, the structure of electric and thermal energy generation capacities, as well as the structure of the need for all types of energy resources in the sectors of the country's economy (M.I. Kaplin, T. R. Bilan, M. O. Perov, I. Yu. Novitsky).

The ecological model of the technological development of coal mining has been improved, which takes into consideration the environmental consequences of mine operation by linking the volumes of coal production with the volumes of mine methane release, the necessary production capacities of equipment for its utilization, as well as the volumes of capital expenditures for such equipment. Taking into consideration these costs in the conditions of increased requirements for the ecological functioning of the coal industry is a necessary element of forecasting its development, in particular, the financial support of modernization programs. With the use of this model, an assessment of the potential for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in the coal industry was carried out, taking into consideration the forecast of the development of the coal industry for the period until 2040. The results of the calculations show that it is possible to reduce methane emissions by 35% in 2020 and 55% in 2025 only through the introduction of degassing equipment during the modernization of mines. and up to 59% in 2040 relative to the actual level of 2017. The reducing greenhouse gas emissions overall capacity in the coal industry of Ukraine for the period up to 2040 is up to 50% of the CO2 equivalent relative to the actual level of 2017 (V.M. Makarov, M. I. Kaplin, M. O. Perov).

2018

Mathematical models of frequency and power regulation processes in unified energy systems with wind, solar power plants, and storage batteries have been developed and researched, which makes it possible to make more informed decisions about the application of the most effective regulation laws. Conducted studies have shown that stabilization of frequency and power with powerful wind and solar power plants in their composition can be ensured by introducing into the structure of energy systems storage batteries with a power comparable to the power of wind and solar power plants. It has been proven that the fulfillment of the specified conditions makes it possible to obtain the accuracy of frequency and power regulation at the level or even higher than the normative for power systems as Ukraine, so as the European Union (Academicians of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine M.M. Kulyk, O.V. Zgurovets).

The method of compacting daily schedules of electrical loads in the UES of Ukraine with the use of complexes of electric heat generators (ETG) received further development based on electric boilers and heat pumps, installed at the objects of centralized heat supply systems (CHSS) of large cities of Ukraine. In part of the calculation methodology, new analytical expressions have been obtained that allow determining the real values of the maneuvering power for each type of CHSS characteristic for Ukraine. As a result of the use of this methodology, it was determined that the total amount of maneuverable power of ETG is currently from 2.8 to 3.4 GW. These capacities are sufficient to regulate the frequency and power in the UES of Ukraine (1-1.2 GW) and to compact

the daily schedules of electric loads in the amount of 2.0 to 2.2 GW in the summer period and up to 6.0 GW in heating period. (academician of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine M.M. Kulyk, V.D. Bilodid, V.O. Derii).

A new mathematical model of the long-term development of the structure of generating capacities of the electric power system in a partial integer formulation has been developed, which, unlike the existing ones, allows to determine the terms of commissioning and decommissioning of specific units of power stations, taking into account changes in their technical and economic indicators, commercial availability of technologies, ensuring the balances of coverage of characteristic electricity load schedules of the power system, performing of environmental restrictions and requirements, and investment restrictions. The mathematical model was implemented as part of the "Matrix" subsystem of the "Pyramid-V" software and information complex, developed at the Institute of General Energy of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (T.P. Nechaeva).

Based on the results of the research of critical scenarios for the development of the energy complex (EC) of the country, a set of preventive measures was formed, which are necessary for uninterrupted provision of the country's needs in energy resources and effective work of the EC, taking into account energy security requirements. For the reliable functioning of the UES of Ukraine, it is necessary to create an updated system of automatic regulation of frequency and power based on new developments to ensure the conditions for refusal of services in regulation by the Russian Federation. Among the priority measures in the nuclear energy sector, the extension of the operating terms of the operating NPP power units was allocated, the diversification of sources of nuclear fuel (NP) supply, the complete completion of the Centralized Storage of Spent Fuel and the costs of decommissioning NPP units, the adoption at the state level of the decision on the choice of the type of replacement reactors and sites their location, solving the issue of proper tariff formation to ensure financing of nuclear energy facilities. It is necessary to make changes to the model of state support for alternative energy. In the oil and gas industry the priority are measures to increase own production of hydrocarbons, to ensure the full functioning of the gas market, to create an effective gas accounting system, to solve the problem of filling the gas transportation system with gas transit volumes necessary for its effective operation, to create a gas hub based on underground storage gas facilities of the western region (T.P. Nechaeva, I.Ch. Leshchenko).

The methodology for determining the economically feasible energy saving potential at four levels of economic management according to the KVED-2010 p. classifier: country, aggregated sections, sections of energy-intensive sections, energy-intensive types of production has been clarified. Estimated amounts of energy savings: savings of fuel, heat and electricity across the country, in aggregated sections of the economy, energy-intensive sections of sections and energy-intensive industries until 2040, taking into account the environmental factor when determining the energy intensity of products. (O.E. Malyarenko, N.Yu. Maistrenko, V.V. Stanytsyna, G.O. Kuts).

A balance-optimization model for the optimization of the mutually coordinated functioning of the heat energy industry of Ukraine and the fuel industries of PEC has been developed. The model differs from known ones in the possibility of coordinating the levels of development of these sectors of the economy in order to guarantee energy security. The production of fuel resources and their consumption by PEC generation facilities are presented within the framework of a unified approach by technological methods of L.V. Kantorovich with differentiated consideration of technological indicators of fuel and energy producers in conditions of significant changes in energy supply caused by the occupation of part of the country's territory. Calculations of fuel and energy balances provide the possibility of presenting in the structure of the energy supply system measures for the reconstruction of generating sources of the country's energy complex. The model can be used to assess the impact of the modernization of individual power system facilities on the overall fuel and energy balance, and to determine promising directions for the country's energy supply. (M.I. Kaplin, T.R. Bilan, M.M. Makortetskyi).

The forecast for the development of the coal industry until 2040 has been adjusted, taking into account the resumption of operation of only promising mines in the temporarily occupied territories when they are returned to the control of the Ukrainian authorities. Taking into account the probability of not returning the occupied territories, the lack of investment in the restoration and development of the lignite complex and the construction of new mines, a critical scenario for the development of the coal industry has been developed, which provides for the operation of only promising mines in the territory controlled by the Ukrainian authorities. (V.M. Makarov, M.O. Perov, I.Yu. Novitskyi).

On the basis of previously developed methods of analysis of thermochemical regeneration schemes (TRC), extensive numerical studies of thermodynamic and technical-economic characteristics of such schemes in relation to various thermal power and heat technological installations were carried out. It has been established that under optimal conditions, the payback period for capital investments in the implementation of TKR technology does not exceed 3-4 months. Using the example of gas turbine units of gas pumping stations of Ukraine, the expedient scope of implementation of TKR units was determined (O.A. Shreiber, V.V. Dubrovskyi).

The previously created mathematical model of the interaction of the electric power system (ES) and consumer-regulator complexes (SR) based on electric heat generators (ETH) located in the centralized heat supply systems (DHS) of large cities of Ukraine in the processes of load regulation of the ES has been significantly improved, in particular, the methodological principles of interaction have been developed ECs and decentralized SCTs with ETGs installed in them as SRs, the theoretical foundations of the joint functioning of electric and heating systems using ETGs to increase their efficiency and controllability were developed, the possibilities of organizing the processes of managing load modes in ECs without increasing the traditional shunting generating capacities in UES of Ukraine were considered, in particular, without increasing capacities at hydro-accumulating power plants (V.D. Bilodid, E.A. Lenchevskii, V.O. Derii).

On the basis of the analysis of the technical condition of thermal power plants and thermal power plants of Ukraine, proposals have been developed for the improvement and replacement of outdated equipment with new ones, which have found wide use in various countries of the world with a positive economic effect and increased maneuverability of power units in energy systems. New technologies ensure fuel economy and reduction of TPP emissions into the environment (L.O. Kesova, I.S. Sokolovska, I.V. Antonets).

2017

The viewing of The models of equilibrium prices and outputs in the theory of inter-industry balance have been executed ("input-output", "expenditure-output" models, by V.V. Leontiev), and new models for the vectors of these quantities have been found. The fundamental properties of the main matrix forms in systems of equations of the inter-branch balance are established (ranks of matrices, dependence of ranks on the vectors of the right-hand parts, multivaluedness and properties of solutions). The theoretical results were verified on the data of the "expenditure-output" tables in Ukraine for 2012 (Academician of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine M.M. Kulyk).

Advanced methods of compacting daily schedules of electric loads in the UES of Ukraine that uses electric heat generator complexes based on electric boilers and heat pumps installed at facilities of centralized heat supply systems of large cities of Ukraine in terms of coordinating schedules of electric and thermal loads. The substantiation of the economic feasibility of the implementation of these methods has been done. The implementation of the mentioned methods provides an opportunity to significantly increase the maneuverability, reliability and stability of the United Energy System of Ukraine (Academician of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine M.M. Kulyk, V.D. Bilodid, V.O. Derii).

Considering the global trends in the development of the electric power industry and the requirements, that prediction imposes in deeper perspective, models of the life cycle of energy technologies have been improved, which included the functional dependences of changes in specific capital investments over time during the forecasting horizon, the trajectories of changes in the cost of fuel and harmful emissions and their indicators have been taken into account. This made it possible to adequately determine the economic indicators of technologies that will be put into operation during the forecast period. A new mathematical model for assessing the prospects for the introduction of new generating capacities in the UES of Ukraine has been proposed, which is formalized as an optimization with integer variables, which allows determining the dynamics of capacity introduction processes and determining the necessary investments for this (I.Ch. Leshchenko, T.P. Nechaeva).

On the basis of improved mathematical models, critical scenarios of the country's energy development related to insufficient investment in energy facilities were formed and investigated. It has been established that insufficient investment can lead to the collapse of the industry already after 2030 when large-scale decommissioning of obsolete capacities will begin. The introduction of technologies on low capital intensity natural gas will not solve the problem of replacing decommissioned thermal power plants and nuclear power plants, and their operation in modes close to the basic ones will lead to a significant growth in the use of natural gas, which will significantly increase the country's level of energy dependence. For the sustainable and environmentally acceptable working of the energy system, it is necessary to solve the problem of finding sources of investment in the industry right now, especially for the implementation of such capital-intensive projects with a long construction period, such as nuclear power plants and thermal power plants (T.P. Nechaeva).

It has been determined that the priority directions for the development of nuclear energy in Ukraine are the replacement of operating NPP power units with powerful power units with light water reactors under the pressure of the VVER type, operating in the basic load mode, and the introduction of small modular reactors capable of operating with a wide range of power changes. The results of carrying out the scientific work can be used to form long-term decisions regarding the development of nuclear energy in Ukraine, which ensure an increase in its safety, environmental friendliness, energy and economic efficiency (T.P. Nechaeva).

The method of determining the forecast demand for fuel and energy resources by a comprehensive method has been improved, which differs from the preliminary consideration of the structure of electricity and heat generating capacities, which leads to a more accurate determination of the demand for energy resources in the energy sector. The amounts of thermal energy savings from structural and technological changes have been determined, taking into account the trends that have occurred in the country's economy, the amounts of projected fuel savings by type (coal, natural gas, petroleum products, others) were specified. By improved techniques, relevant forecasts of fuel demand until 2040 were developed (O.E. Maliarenko, N.Yu. Maistrenko, V.V. Stanytsyna).

The structure of the balance-optimization model of the country's energy supply has been developed, taking into account the uncertainty of supply and new directions of their receipt from world markets. The model contains subsystems of the balance of coal, natural gas, oil and petroleum products, electricity, and thermal energy. (O.V. Stognii, M.I. Kaplin, T.R. Bilan).

Based on researches of the characteristic features of daily schedules of electric loads in power systems (ES) and schedules of thermal energy consumption from centralized heat supply systems (CHSS) for different cities of Ukraine, the possibilities and nature of the interaction of these macrosystems in the processes of regulating electric loads of the ES when using electric heat generators based on electric boilers and heat pumps. It gave the possibility to create a generalized mathematical model of EC load regulation, which will be used for application in the modernization of the automated dispatch control system of Ukraine's UES, with complemented components related to the forecasting of heat load schedules of the heat generators CHSS, characteristics of heat generators, restrictions on the interaction of the EC with the CHSS and restrictions on the application of the proposed complexes of heat generators that take into account the regulatory capabilities of power plants involved in the UES of Ukraine (V.D. Bilodid, E.A. Lenchevskii, V.O. Derii).

A method of determining the technical and economic characteristics of installations for the use of secondary energy resources generated in heat engines and industrial furnaces based on thermochemical regeneration has been developed. The method involves the creation of a number of basic and constructive schemes of installations with increased technical and economic characteristics (O.A. Shreiber, V.V. Dubrovskyi, I.V. Antonets).

Taking into account the expected change in the physical, technical and technical and economic indicators of promising NPP power units, the existing deterministic-stochastic models of the life cycle were improved, as well as the corresponding software and information tools were refined, which, unlike the generally known ones, allows to determine the technical and economic indicators of the NPP, which during its commercial operation is used in modes with variable load (S.V. Shulzhenko, V.A. Denisov).

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2022

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