International Research Projects: Historical Perspective

Since 2000, the Institute of General Energy of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, within the framework of cooperation between the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA, Austria), has been conducting scientific research, the results of which are utilized in the development of international projects, particularly in the study of global climate change.
Since 2017, researchers of the Institute of General Energy of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, in accordance with the joint project of the NAS of Ukraine and IIASA “Comprehensive Modeling of Management of Sustainable Food, Water, and Energy Resources for Sustainable Social, Economic, and Environmental Development,” have been performing the scientific research work “Investigation of Energy Development Processes as a Factor of Sustainable Development of the Socio-Economic System, Ensuring Economic Efficiency, Technical Reliability, Minimization of Environmental Impact and Greenhouse Gas Emissions.”
As a result of investigating the prospects of scientific and technological progress for the main classes of energy technologies and analyzing the regulatory and legal framework that determines the principles of operation and directions of long-term development of energy sectors, forecasted indicator data have been formulated to determine the boundary conditions for the economic efficiency of the main technological classes of energy. Using enhanced models of the lifecycle of energy technologies, it was determined that the boundary conditions for the economic efficiency of a new promising nuclear energy technology—small modular reactors—consist in securing a strategic direction for low-carbon energy development. A new simulation mathematical model is proposed to determine the composition of a combined power plant (battery storage and solar/wind power plant) that is optimal according to the economic efficiency criterion, which allows for taking into account all key modes of utilizing modern lithium-ion battery storage systems. A new mathematical programming model with integer variables has been developed, enabling computer simulation of the processes of integrating large volumes of generating capacities of renewable energy with a stochastic nature of electricity production into the national power system, while also preserving electricity generation from existing nuclear power plants. A balance-optimization mathematical model has been developed for the energy supply of the national economy under conditions of limited sources of energy supply, uncertainty in the forecasted structure of demand for fuel and energy resources, environmental constraints, and taking into account energy security requirements, which provides for maintaining the ratio between the volumes of imports and domestic extraction, as well as the supply structure of imported fuel.
In 2020, during the execution of work under Stage IV “Development of Interconnected Systems of Mathematical Models of Long-Term Sustainable Energy Development as an Infrastructure Sector of the Socio-Economic System, Modeling of Typical Scenarios,” the following results were obtained. To ensure the adequacy of modeling the electricity generation modes of power plants that are part of the power system, mathematical equations regarding compliance with the required volumes of secondary reserves were developed. The application of the proposed equations allows for finding an optimal solution regarding the distribution of secondary reserves among the generating capacities of the power system for each hour of the electrical load schedule. This solution ensures the maximum utilization of the highly variable capacity of renewable generation, wind and solar power plants, and thus allows for the formation of robust decisions regarding the technological structure of the electricity sector as a whole for both the short-term and long-term perspective. The enhanced mathematical model takes into account the physical and technical characteristics of generation equipment operating within the power system. The model also features equations used as constraints in the optimization model, which take into account the boundary volumes of power flows with interconnected neighboring power systems. This allows for evaluating the level of flexibility of the power system under conditions of its operation both in isolated mode (in this case, power flows must be zero for each modeling period) and under conditions of its parallel operation with neighboring power systems. The application of these equations significantly increases the adequacy of the model regarding taking into account the impact of the highly variable capacity of renewable generation, wind and solar power plants, on the overall balance reliability of the power system. The conducted analysis of new European documents on economic decarbonization, in particular, the European Green Deal, the Hydrogen Strategy for a Climate-Neutral Europe, and the EU Strategy to Reduce Methane Emissions, showed that they will have a significant impact on the functioning of both the energy sector of our country and non-energy sectors. In particular, the introduction of a carbon border tax may make the export of Ukrainian-manufactured goods to the EU, including electricity, economically unfeasible due to the high carbon intensity of these goods compared to European counterparts. Developed estimates of natural gas consumption for the period up to 2040, taking into account structural changes in the economy of Ukraine and technological energy conservation, predict a gradual growth in gas consumption from 31.5 billion cubic meters in 2017 to 44.2 billion cubic meters in 2040. At the same time, assessments of forecasts for natural gas demand in EU countries in 2040–2050 showed downward trends in natural gas consumption. The main reason for this is the European Union’s policy on economic decarbonization by reducing the consumption of fossil natural gas in the total consumption of gaseous fuels through its replacement with synthetic methane, hydrogen, and biomethane. This necessitates the determination of robust solutions for meeting the demand for gaseous fuel consumption through new low-carbon fuel types to ensure sustainable low-carbon economic development.
Based on the results of the scientific research work performed in 2020, a chapter of the collective monograph “Interconnectedness in the Food, Energy, and Water System for Sustainable Development: Integrated Modeling and Robust Management” (edited by Zagorodny A.G., Ermoliev Y.M., Bogdanov V.L., Ermolieva T.Y., et al.) was published by the “Academperiodika” publishing house, along with 2 articles in a professional scientific publication indexed in international scientometric databases, and 1 chapter within a collective monograph accepted for print in 2021 by the Springer publishing house. The performed studies correspond to high-level international standards in terms of their relevance and obtained results.
The works are carried out in cooperation with leading specialists of such IIASA scientific projects as “Advanced Systems Analysis” and “Air Quality and Greenhouse Gases” (Acad. of the NAS of Ukraine M.M. Kulyk, S.V. Shulzhenko, T.P. Nechaieva, I.Ch. Leshchenko, M.I. Kaplin, V.V. Stanytsina).
In 2012–2016, researchers of the Institute of General Energy of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, in accordance with the joint project of the NAS of Ukraine and IIASA “Comprehensive Modeling of Management of Sustainable Food, Water, and Energy Resources for Sustainable Social, Economic, and Environmental Development,” completed the scientific research work “Investigation of Energy Development Processes Under Information Uncertainty and Increasing Environmental Requirements for Harmful Substances and Greenhouse Gas Emissions.” The work proposed a system of interconnected mathematical models of energy sub-sectors, which form an integrated mathematical model of the national fuel supply system with stochastic exogenous variables and scenarios. Existing mathematical models were enhanced and new ones were developed for shaping the development directions of individual energy sectors, in particular, the electricity sector, the coal and gas industries, and the energy sector as a whole. Software and information tools were developed for constructing stochastic scenarios of external conditions for the functioning and development of energy, as well as techno-economic indicators of the main technological classes of energy (Acad. of the NAS of Ukraine M.M. Kulyk, S.V. Shulzhenko, T.R. Bilan, M.I. Kaplin, B.A. Kostiukovskyi, I.Ch. Leshchenko, O.Ie. Maliarenko).
In 2009–2011, researchers of the Institute of General Energy of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, in accordance with the joint project of the NAS of Ukraine and IIASA “Evolution of High Technologies, Modeling and Assessment of Technological Change Impact on Economic Development,” completed the scientific research work “Investigation of Directions and Indicators of Ukraine’s Energy Development in the Context of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Beyond 2012 (Post-Kyoto Period).” The scientific work investigated methods for limiting and regulating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at the international and national levels, formulated variants of potential constraints on GHG emissions for Ukraine in the future, and analyzed prospective directions and technologies for reducing these emissions. Methods and tools for forecasting energy development were enhanced to ensure that constraints on future GHG emissions are taken into account and to assess their impact on the development directions of the country’s fuel and energy complex in the future. Alternative development scenarios for economic sectors and the fuel and energy complex of Ukraine were developed and investigated in the context of ensuring the fulfillment of the country’s potential obligations regarding GHG emissions in the period up to 2030, taking into account the probability of a significant increase in the stringency of the specified obligations in the future (Acad. of the NAS of Ukraine M.M. Kulyk, B.A. Kostiukovskyi, S.V. Shulzhenko, T.P. Nechaieva, O.O. Ruban-Maksymets, D.P. Sas).
In 2000–2008, the Institute conducted scientific research utilized in the development of international projects, particularly in the study of global climate change. Methodological approaches, mathematical models, and software were developed to investigate the prospects of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, which allow for determining the impact of the scale and pace of introducing new technologies in economic sectors on greenhouse gas emission levels. Under the project “Transboundary Air Pollution,” forecasting of external conditions for the development of the fuel and energy complex of Ukraine was conducted, taking into account the directions of energy market transformation, and its development paths were investigated with consideration of environmental protection requirements. Methodological approaches, algorithms, and software were developed for transforming the actual and prospective fuel and energy balances of Ukraine into the format of the international RAINS (The Regional Air Pollution and Simulation) model in order to obtain the possibility of refining data regarding the impact of thermal power plants on the environment (indicators of transboundary transport of sulfur and nitrogen oxides, dust, and greenhouse gas emissions). Data was prepared and transmitted to the leadership of IIASA for conducting forecast calculations for the period up to 2030 using the RAINS simulation and information model of regional pollution, which allow for evaluating the cost and environmental effects of emission control actions for a specific energy and agricultural development scenario; the possibilities were analyzed and recommendations were provided on using the Joint Implementation project mechanism provided by the Kyoto Protocol to secure investments in the development of Ukraine’s energy sectors (Acad. of the NAS of Ukraine M.M. Kulyk, B.A. Kostiukovskyi, S.V. Shulzhenko).